A week ago, @that1618guy published a framework showing how BTC behavior in November splits beween bull and bear regimes. The thesis was that timing and depth of the monthly low reveal the underlying market structure. Now we could be watching this play out right now. The 1W EMA 21/9 bearish cross projected for Nov 14-15 appears to have confirmed. BTC has drifted lower through mid November and is now roughly down -10.5% from the monthly open. When November follows the bearish regime historically: • The monthly low is more likely to form late • Drawdowns tend to run deeper than the -6% to -8% range seen in bull setups, coinciding with liquidity stress and forced deleveraging • 2022 saw -10.1% amid FTX collapse while 2021 saw -6.3% before broader cycle reversal. The current drawdown has now matched 2022. Late month November lows in bearish regimes have historically marked either final capitulation before stabilization (2022) or the start of extended consolidation (2021-22). The question now is whether this weakness represents a washout that resets for year end or a deeper correction into December.(Delphi Digital)