Sea|11月 12, 2025 03:13
Yesterday afternoon, I drove to attend a small dinner party with @ 0xTykoo @ LeotheHorseman @ chaowxyz and happened to listen to a video of Snowball Fang's dialogue with Duan Yongping. It should have been a relatively complete conversation about Duan Yongping's investment system.
Extract some memorable points. Of course, Duan Yongping's views are also changing. When answering the abbot's questions, he often says' I don't know '.
I don't have any life goals, and I have always had no ambitions. I feel like I am just an ordinary person, and it's good to live a good life.
Some companies give dividends to shareholders as if it were a gift, but I don't think it makes sense. Distributing dividends to shareholders is what shareholders should receive, and the dividends received by employees are what employees should receive. Just like when we give out bonuses and someone says' thank you boss', it's not appropriate for me to say that because it's a bonus given according to the contract, you don't need to thank me. Although everyone casually thinks that they should thank them for receiving the money, the direction of this gratitude is not right.
Finding the right person also takes time. For example, there are two ways to find the right person: one is the wrong person, and you gradually eliminate them; Another way is that he has both good and evil. After he identifies with your culture, he slowly follows you.
Until I looked at Lao Ba's things, I didn't actually look at anything but 'buying stocks is buying companies'. I saw that sentence and suddenly understood that it was enough. I think understanding business is very important, it's difficult to invest without understanding business.
Why is it said that investing is easy, but not easy? Simply put, you must look at the company, understand the business, and also understand the future cash flow; The difficulty lies in how difficult it is for you to achieve this, as most companies find it difficult to understand.
I can teach everyone a way to make money, just buy the S&P 500 index, you always make money in the end, but that doesn't mean you understand. But if you really do this, it actually means you understand.
The safety margin of Lao Ba does not refer to this (company cash>market value). The safety margin refers to how well you understand the company, not how cheap it is. Cheap things can be even cheaper.
People care about what we have done, but in fact, a big reason why we become ourselves is because of the things we don't do. We didn't do it because we knew it wasn't suitable for us. Isn't not doing it enough to make fewer mistakes? The probability of doing the right thing is higher.
Copying homework is difficult because you are lagging behind. It's okay for you to copy Lao Ba's homework. Lao Ba's things are transparent. How do you copy mine? I don't disclose my position, I buy more and buy less, you don't even know, you can't keep up with the proportion. I might buy something just to force myself to take a closer look. You followed along, and when you saw that Ah Duan had also bought it, you were all in. Isn't that a mistake. So I think this is very difficult. If you don't understand enterprises, it's really difficult. It's best not to touch them. I'm very conservative. I just bought Maotai for the A-share market.
I bought apples, and at the highest point, I invested to over 90 points (position ratio), which means I kept buying, buying, and buying every time I dropped.
I tend to believe that the money it will earn in the future will match my investment opportunity cost. You see, I also bought Maotai. Maotai is a company that doesn't want to change, but is afraid of a new CEO who will mess around. So far it's okay, I dare not leave my sect after all the changes. Don't change the 53 degree sky, so state-owned enterprises have advantages in this regard. Innovation is actually about meeting user needs. If you need to change, change; if you don't need to change, don't change.
I do think Elon Musk is amazing. He has many ideas and is indeed very advanced. But I think investing is quite difficult. From a personal perspective, I don't really like this person's character. You're actually making friends with him when you invest. I don't want to be friends with him, even if you give me money, I won't do it. So I don't really like this thing, but I realize he's really amazing.
I have a friend who passed away, and his child told me that he bought half of the S&P 500 index and half of Berkshire Hathaway. That's right, this arrangement is quite good.
If you can't withstand a 50% drop in a stock, you shouldn't buy it.
I think many people have a big misunderstanding about the so-called 'value investment', which is that you need to hold it for the long term and cannot sell it. Long term holding is an intention, and when I bought it, I intended to hold it for the long term, but you always have to calculate your opportunity cost. If you discover a better company and feel more grounded, for example, 5 years ago when you understood Nvidia, you see today's situation where you only have Maotai in your hands. If you could change it, there's no reason why you wouldn't.
◦ AI must be an industrial revolution, but foam will always come with it. The feature of foam is that everyone goes up with it, and everyone rushes in to buy everything as soon as they say AI. But in the end, there will be some companies that will indeed be very powerful.
In the era of AI, stock traders will be very dangerous because you can't beat Liang Wenfeng. This has long been discovered, so you are all leeks. Those who want to make money by trading stocks by looking at pictures and lines are like iron leeks. But it can't harvest me because I don't move, it doesn't affect the decisions I make.
I believe that AI will have an impact on everyone, whether they are adults or children. I have seen many people in their forties feel that they can no longer accept new things. In fact, I think their lives will be very painful and uncomfortable, and sometimes new things can be quite fun.
All the things parents do are to increase their children's sense of security. Conversely, things that lower one's sense of security should not be done.
If you really don't understand investing, don't touch it. Stock trading is difficult to make money, as most retail investors lose around 80% in both bull and bear markets. Therefore, don't think of yourself as a special person unless you know what you are doing. But if you really know how to invest, you don't need any advice. You just need to buy the company you think is good, hold it, and compare it with your other opportunity costs.
For the complete content, you can see the text version of Snowball official account( https://mp.weixin. (qq.com)/s/YDxnuKVKmEOlPCu2DWg6Aw)、 Voice version on the small universe( https://www. (xiaoyuzhoufm.com)/episode/691295ccfae48844090e9cbd)、 The video version on Snowball Video Account.
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