⚡ Today, everyone is talking about Musk's desire to establish a party due to the Great Beauty Act, and they all feel that he has finally stepped down to participate in elections, which may overturn the US political situation and participate in governance. Let's start with the conclusion: it's basically impossible! Let me explain my understanding—— one ⃣ The political party structure in the United States has become severely class entrenched In fact, the so-called third party in American history is not uncommon and has all failed. The fundamental reason is that the political party system in the United States has undergone over 150 years of polarization: 1) The winner takes all electoral system determines that the third party will never be able to break through the parliamentary structure. Even if you have a 10% approval rating, as long as you lose second in every constituency, you won't get a seat. 2) Historical experience is also unfriendly: from the Green Party, the Liberal Party to the Forward Party, they have all fallen into the embarrassment of having more influence on speech but less influence on votes. That is to say, even if @ elonmusk establishes the American Party, it is almost impossible for it to threaten the congressional foundations of the Democratic and Republican parties in the short term. two ⃣ Who will join the American Party? Although Musk still has a net worth of $400 billion and 220 million Twitter users, let's analyze it—— First of all, MAGA definitely won't go, and LGBT people definitely won't go either. The black minority over there is a 42% chance that they are in Democratic territory and won't go either; In addition, in the business world, traditional enterprises and military industries are likely to ignore him, while technology companies and Musk are competitors. Who would break their arm and become a rising star in such a situation? So I guess I won't go either. In this way, apart from the group of people who boast on Twitter, there is actually no completely reliable base, and we can only strive for swing states. But you know, relying solely on swing states is basically impossible to win the election. Overall, the possibility of the American Party becoming the third largest party is basically zero, after all, a party that started with the National Republican Party has been divided and annexed by the two parties for more than a decade, let alone the self-made American Party. three ⃣ What Musk really wants is not to be president, but bargaining power I think this is Musk's most core and crucial purpose—— Musk's essence is not a person who believes in politics, but a transactional super individual. He is actually calling for the establishment of a party in order to compete for greater bargaining power in American politics for himself and the platforms he controls (X, Tesla, Starlink, etc.). I guess his ultimate goal may be: 1) Using the establishment of the party to create panic and leverage, influencing the Republican or Democratic Party to move closer to him in the election; 2) Even before 2028, providing the influence of the "last vote" to support a candidate and playing the role of a king maker; 3) In the end, a political tacit exchange was reached: you protect my business empire, and I will not seize your power territory. So all of this determines that Elon Musk, a political amateur, the best way to accomplish this is not to become president, but to go to parliament and spend a few dollars! As long as there are two or three senators and seven or eight representatives, they can become a key force influencing American politics. Of course, this process will definitely be subject to joint execution by both parties, and is destined to be difficult and tortuous. Being a good disruptor should be the best and only path for Musk and the American Party! (Image from: Jin Shi)