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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Jun 15, 2025 14:14
Economic ramifications of Israel/Iran conflict: 1. Oil prices could rise as high as 130/barrel, per JP Morgan 2. Iran currently produces 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, or ~3.5% of global supply 3. Oil at 130 would likely double US CPI inflation to ~5% 4. Interest rate cuts likely to be delayed further as a result 5. Strait of Hormuz shutdown seen as worst case scenario Without immediate de-escalation of this conflict, the global economy shift.
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Timeline

Jul 15, 13:25【The CPI report will not change the policy direction of the Federal Reserve】
Jul 15, 13:05【The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July has risen to 97.4%】
Jul 15, 12:52【Traders insist on betting on Fed's September rate cut】
Jul 15, 12:41【US June Core CPI Monthly Rate Meets Target】
Jul 15, 12:35【The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is extremely low】
Jul 15, 12:25【CPI lower than expected will affect future interest rate cuts pricing】
Jul 15, 11:45【Goldman Sachs macro traders worry about inflation complacency】
Jul 15, 11:28【Expected CPI data to be higher than last month】
Jul 15, 09:39【CPI decreases, inflation cools down】
Jul 15, 09:37【CPI data to be released tonight, expected to rebound】

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