Haotian|10月 15, 2026 05:32
Recently, both on chain and second level experiences have been extremely poor, and it is inevitable that my emotions are down like everyone else's. However, last night when I participated in @ 168X_Fortune's Space, I re examined the current market as an outsider and gave myself a lot of patience and confidence:
We must clearly recognize that this is a typical early stage of a bull market, where narratives are exploring and fermenting, liquidity is gradually tentatively returning, calculators and traders are highly active, most builders are still hesitating how to return, and most importantly, most holders are still at a loss to heal the wounds of a bear market. In other words, it belongs to a period of less consensus and market growth momentum that has not yet truly emerged, and high volatility is inevitable.
So, although subjectively perceived as a naive feeling, most people's experiences are highly PVP and very bloody.
Manifested in three aspects:
1) Pump style assembly line launch pads still dominate, and the key to growth and nourishment for these types of launch pads is unlimited launch memes, which are then driven by data such as transaction taxes, fuel, and repurchase mechanisms to drive growth. The emergence of various launch pads in the past month is due to this reason, but launch pads are reaping ecological dividends. Once the ecology is weak, the business of launch pads cannot continue. So if we want to have a second spring on the chain, we must break away from relying on MEME to distribute games and create many projects that truly accumulate value. The emergence of hooks narrative is a good sign;
2) The market still does not believe in technological narratives, and projects in the fields of infrared and application will sit on the bench at this stage, because in the previous cycle, technological narratives were the main theme, with VC as the main driving force, which brought many problems of high FDV market dumping and harvesting. This has led many retail investors to prefer pure memes of events and concepts rather than looking at projects with good technological fundamentals and imaginative narratives. It is reasonable, but a healthy Crypto industry cannot rely solely on MEME, as this will result in a significant loss of funds and resources when Devs talent is critical. In order for the industry to recover, it must input real build power, not just speculative trading itself;
3) The new species of social trading apps such as Fomo have amplified emotional trading, while the sudden wealth effect of some top traders such as Bonk guy, Pointfarm, and Frank has amplified irrational trading demand. Behind this, whether it is the trader's personal advertising style orders or just casual trading, under Fomo style follow-up, the volatility will gradually increase, causing further deterioration of the PVP environment in the on chain market. Indeed, as a new species, social trading apps have brought significant growth, but the current high volatility is mostly due to this type of trading model, and more similar product optimizations and improvements are needed.
The above.
Anyway, the narrative of tokenized stocks, the improvement of AI agent application capabilities, the integration of TradFi and DeFi, the widespread adoption of stablecoins, and the policy friendliness of CFTC and SEC are still in the picture. We still need to remain optimistic and wait for the second wave of opportunities to come.
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