This is still my favorite inflation measurement... And it's telling me that the Fed shouldn't hike rates. This is the YoY inflation rate for the "all items less energy" component. It measured +2.54% YoY in September 2026, up from +2.47% in August 2026. In other words, higher/faster crude oil prices/inflation aren't having a ripple effect throughout the economy and causing all other goods and services to experience higher inflation. This is a great sign. But it also points to a problem... The Federal Reserve cannot combat energy-specific inflation, particularly if that energy-specific inflation is not causing accelerated price increases for all other goods/services. Based on the data we have in front of us today, we don't see evidence of that ripple effect. On the contrary, "all items less energy" inflation (YoY) is at its lowest rate since March 2021. I'm not saying that this is the "real" inflation rate, or that energy prices don't count... I'm trying to extract energy to evaluate how ALL OTHER components in the CPI basket are evolving. And the reality is that all other components are experiencing continued and persistent disinflation, even if it's at a slow pace. Look at 2021 and 2022, as an example. In that period, non-energy components were experiencing the highest inflation levels in decades and this forced the Fed to react by embarking on the most aggressive rate hike cycle in ~50 years. Is that same inflation dynamic happening today? No. Yes, prices are still going up. But they are going up at a pace that is (generally) consistent with the historical range. Embrace nuance.