It's that time again for news-driven market moves. I see a lot of people betting on a bullish rally here. Tonight, the CPI data will be released. The key focus is whether inflation exceeds market expectations and whether U.S. Treasury yields will rise again as a result. If inflation comes in lower than expected, the Nasdaq and tech stocks might see a rebound. If core inflation exceeds expectations, tech stocks could face more pressure. That said, the market already has some expectations of an inflation rebound. Here are three factors worth paying attention to: 1. Interest rate risks remain a key factor suppressing U.S. stock valuations. 2. AI-related trades still have support, but there’s a divergence within tech stocks. 3. The market is facing dual challenges from inflation and earnings. Don’t just look at the overall CPI—focus on core CPI. If CPI is lower than expected: U.S. stocks are likely to rebound. Keep an eye on NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta first. If CPI meets expectations: U.S. stocks will likely continue to fluctuate. If CPI exceeds expectations: Tech stocks could face greater pressure, especially high-valuation tech stocks and semiconductors. Key things to watch tonight: 1. Nasdaq Index: To gauge whether growth stocks are seeing sustained buying. 2. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: To assess whether the market is repricing interest rate risks. 3. Semiconductor Sector: To see if the recent weakness continues. 4. U.S. Dollar Index: To observe changes in global financial conditions and risk appetite. For now, this market is only suitable for short-term speculation, not long-term holding. There’s also a chance of a “fake-out” scenario: if U.S. stocks open higher and quickly pull back, it could mean the market has already priced in the good news ahead of time. Stay cautious.