The CPI will be released tonight, and the specific opinions have been clearly stated in the previous two quotes. Simply put, it is quite pessimistic and bearish, thinking that there will be biased eagle data. At this moment, the probability of a rate hike in October is 21.6%, and a rebound in CPI due to high oil prices in September is also an inevitable event. The only game point is how strong the rebound is, whether it meets expectations or exceeds expectations. Among the four values, if the final data of two annual rates and one overall monthly rate is higher than the previous value but lower than the expected value, then the recent decline may be due to the market being overly pessimistic and oversold, and there may be a rebound after the data is released. If it exceeds the expected value, the US stock market is likely to flee. As for being lower than expected, I don't dare to think about it. It's neither realistic nor necessary for the Federal Reserve to adjust its interest rate expectations. Unless Trump really wants to support the US stock market again at this time, but the situation between the US and Iran is high and the US stock market is difficult to be raised in the short term, it is unnecessary for him to pay more sunk costs when both houses are doomed to lose. Instead, he should focus on the post election work. Among the four CPI data points, the most critical and currently the only expected value lower than the previous value is the core monthly rate. If this data can really be controlled, the risk market may not perform too poorly tonight. Overall, the best outcome for tonight's CPI and tomorrow's PPI is to continue the downward trend of the already leading US Treasury yields, so that the risk market can fundamentally improve. The overall monthly rate of around 0.5% and the core monthly rate of 0.2% or lower are the most noteworthy favorable combinations for the bond market; The core 0.1% will be more powerful. Overall 0.6% and core 0.2% also allow the yield to continue to decline. But getting too high can be troublesome. The rise in energy prices has already been predicted in the market, and what really matters tonight is whether core inflation has further spread and whether the bond market has adjusted its future interest rate path upward as a result. If the core is moderate and the actual yield continues to decline, some of the risk discounts in the recent decline may be repaired; If the core is clearly biased towards heat and tomorrow night's PPI further confirms cost pressure, the judgment of a temporary peak in US Treasury bonds needs to be reassessed. @BITstocks_CN buys US stocks on BIT, with over 10000 US stocks and ETFs, holding real positions and enjoying dividends.