Murphy|Oct 14, 2026 03:42
The market might only give you 2 months to think it over.
In the chart, the red line represents STH-RP (Short-Term Holder Realized Price), and the green line represents TMMP (True Market Mean Price). When the red line is above the green line, it signifies a bull market; conversely, when the red line is below the green line, it signifies a bear market.
Currently, STH-RP is around $74,500, and BTC's price is above this level. This means that any turnover of coins at this point will push the average cost higher, causing STH-RP to climb slowly but steadily.
Unless BTC's price falls below STH-RP, the upward trend of the cost average line will not change.
Over the past month, STH-RP has grown by 4.6%, while TMMP is around $77,500. In other words, if the current pace continues, STH-RP will surpass TMMP in 30 days.
If we consider a period of price consolidation and slower turnover, we can reasonably extend the expected time to about 2 months.
In short, for those still debating whether it's a bull or bear market, or for those with extreme price sensitivity who haven't had the courage to jump in yet...
The market is giving you 1-2 months to think carefully (unless there's another black swan event). Make sure to seize this opportunity—time waits for no one!
The next time STH-RP surpasses TMMP, you'll have to wait another 1,000+ days.
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