The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|10月 13, 2026 23:14
The global debt crisis is set to get even worse: The US fiscal deficit is projected to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027, its largest since 2012, excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. This will be the biggest deficit as a % of GDP among the 5 major developed economies, including the UK, Germany, France, and Japan. Furthermore, Germany's deficit is expected to widen from -2.7% of GDP in 2025 to -4.1% in 2027, its largest since 2010, excluding the 2020 pandemic. Japan's fiscal deficit is estimated to more than triple, from -0.7% to -2.5% of GDP, its largest since 2022. The UK is the only economy expected to improve its fiscal position, with its deficit narrowing from -4.3% in 2025, to -3.1% of GDP next year, while France's budget gap is projected to widen to -5.2%. Deficit spending is only accelerating.
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