After running outside for a week without paying much attention to market trends, the business was a bit neglected. Fortunately, last week happened to be a gap period between the non farm payroll and CPI, so it's not a big deal to relax a little. I believe everyone understands the importance of Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI without me saying much. At present, the probability of CME raising interest rates in October still remains at a low level starting with the number 1. Previously, many Federal Reserve members have issued dovish statements to ease market sentiment, but technology stocks, especially AI storage, are still in the stage of correction. According to our consistent analysis of the Federal Reserve, it is unlikely to maintain this consistency of not raising interest rates before the FOMC meeting, or at least break the consistency of not raising interest rates in October and not in December and make forward adjustments. So this week's CPI and PPI data are highly likely to play a role in boosting the probability of a rate hike in October, which means there will be a skewed hawkish data. The high oil prices in September clearly support the trend of increasing inflation. But the more serious problem now is obviously still the US bond interest rate, which is mainly determined by the Middle East situation in the US Iran conflict. Trump had promised not to move Iran before the mid-term elections, but at the same time, he sent a third aircraft carrier formation to the Middle East. In the medium term, after Trump lost the House of Representatives and the People's Court of Justice, he is likely to change the topic by fighting again. Now the market is in a big market after discussing the mid-term elections in history, but this President Trump is obviously not a regular president, and Iran's war is not as smooth as the past military use. This four-year cycle that surged after the midterm elections is more likely to be similar to the easing of the Federal Reserve when Bitcoin was halved earlier. It is caused by the easing cycle. Trump has obviously changed this rhythm since he took office, but it cannot be ruled out that the market self realization caused by historical inertia. However, if Trump reopens the war against Iraq in November and throws a big hole, it may be a better way to repair the rebound next year. The so-called one-year rise in mid-term elections does not mean a continuous rise for 12 months. At most, it can only indicate that the overall index was higher in November of this year than in November of this year. However, the path and individual stock performance during this period will inevitably vary greatly, and this coarse-grained rule cannot be directly applied to stock and currency trading. @BITstocks_CN buys US stocks on BIT, with over 10000 US stocks and ETFs, holding real positions and enjoying dividends.