**[Bitunix Analyst: Bond Sell-Off Reshapes Rate Expectations, High Yields Taking Over Central Bank's Tightening Pressure]** BlockBeats News, October 12 – The global bond market sell-off is creating a "market-led tightening" effect: long-term bond yields are rising, driving up the costs of mortgages, corporate financing, and high-yield bonds. Even without further rate hikes from central banks, financial conditions are already exerting pressure on economic demand. The cumulative rate hike expectations implied by interest rate swaps in eight major economies have dropped from a September peak of 717 basis points to about 539 basis points, a reduction of 178 basis points. This reflects investors beginning to assess the tightening effect of the bond market itself and whether this could reduce the necessity for further rate hikes by central banks. However, the rise in yields is not solely driven by policy expectations. The term premium on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has risen to approximately 0.98%, the highest level since 2014, indicating that investors are demanding higher compensation for holding long-term bonds. Factors such as government financing needs, fiscal risks, and corporate investments in AI infrastructure are collectively adding upward pressure on long-term bond yields. Although recent demand for U.S. Treasury auctions has improved and high yields are starting to attract buyers, it is still insufficient to dispel market concerns about the supply of long-term debt. Inflation data will determine whether this tightening can replace further rate hikes. Nomura predicts that the U.S. core CPI for September will rise by 0.227% month-over-month, lower than August's 0.290%. However, gasoline prices are expected to increase by 9.3%, potentially driving the overall CPI up by about 0.58% month-over-month. If core inflation cools while energy prices push up overall prices, central banks will face a dilemma of balancing economic pressure with persistent inflation. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard still believes that further policy tightening may be needed in the next six to nine months. Therefore, the key issue is not just whether central banks will raise rates again, but how much the bond market has already tightened and whether high financing costs can effectively cool demand. If the real estate market, corporate investment, and consumption gradually slow down, policy rates may not need to rise significantly. However, if energy inflation spreads again, bond market tightening could coincide with further central bank rate hikes, subjecting the economy to greater cumulative pressure.