This Week's Macro Outlook: CPI Data Tests Fed's Pause on Rate Hikes, Waller's IMF Speech Becomes the Focus

BlockBeats News, October 12 — This week, global markets will focus on the U.S. September CPI data to assess whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its "non-continuous rate hike" stance. Although most officials believe another rate hike may occur this year, recent statements indicate they are not in a hurry to act in consecutive meetings. Market pricing for a rate hike on October 28 has dropped to about 19%, while a December rate hike is fully anticipated. Geopolitically, the U.S.-Iran standoff and escalating tensions in Yemen continue to support oil price risk premiums, while the short-term impact of the U.S.-Russia diesel supply agreement remains limited. Key events are as follows: **Tuesday:** - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester delivers a speech. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in India. - U.S. September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, ADP Employment Change for the week ending September 26, and annualized September Existing Home Sales. - OPEC releases its monthly oil market report. **Wednesday:** - U.S. September CPI and Core CPI. - Fed releases Beige Book on economic conditions, preceded by intensive speeches. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman deliver speeches. - IEA releases its monthly oil market report. **Thursday:** - U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending October 9. - U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 10, September Retail Sales, September PPI and Core PPI, October New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Indexes. - G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting. **Friday:** - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson attends the Bangkok IMF Annual Meeting and participates in a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester delivers another speech. - U.S. September Import Price Index and Industrial Production. - U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending October 9.