**[Analysis: Market Decline Combined with BTC Distribution by LTH May Not Be Fearful, Potential Selling Pressure in Bear-to-Bull Transition Phase Released in Advance]** BlockBeats News, October 12 – Analyst Murphy stated that data shows long-term holders (LTH) cumulatively transferred approximately 32,000 BTC to exchanges between October 7 and 8. This marks the second-largest single-day transfer by LTH since the major drop on February 5 this year, likely indicating potential selling intentions. However, not all of these 32,000 BTC can be considered as active distribution by LTH. During the same period, U.S. government-related wallets transferred approximately 17,200 BTC to Coinbase Prime. Considering that Coinbase Prime is the official custody and trading service provider designated by the U.S. Marshals Service, this transfer does not necessarily imply selling; it could also be related to asset custody consolidation or case handling. Excluding this special transfer, the remaining approximately 14,800 BTC is the more critical potential selling pressure, primarily from long-term holdings aged 6-12 months and 3-5 years. During the bear-to-bull transition phase, LTH typically transfers 2,000-3,000 BTC daily to exchanges, which is considered a normal range. When the transfer volume suddenly exceeds the average significantly, it is often associated with special events or bearish expectations. However, "market decline combined with LTH distribution" is not necessarily a bad thing, especially during the bear-to-bull transition phase. From the adjusted CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) data, it can be observed that whenever the market pulls back and CDD rises sharply, it often indicates that some long-dormant coins are becoming active, with some even choosing to exit. However, in hindsight, while the decline brings short-term selling pressure, it also facilitates the turnover of less confident holdings. The early release of potential selling pressure can actually reduce resistance for subsequent market movements. From another perspective, this is also a sign of long-term dormant coins being gradually activated and turnover activity increasing during the bull market process. Therefore, there is no need to overly worry about every instance of LTH distribution. What truly matters is whether the market can effectively absorb these coins. After all, a bull market cannot exist with only buying and no selling. The continuous release of old coins and the steady absorption by new capital is, in itself, the process through which the market rediscovers value. Sufficient turnover of coins is, in fact, a critical foundation for a market rally to go further. [Original Link]