In 2000, the Internet foam burst, and technology stocks remained depressed for a long time. The core is not the foam, but the Internet did not find a business model around 2000. From 2000 to 2006 and 2007, the four major business models of the Internet, namely, games, advertising, e-commerce and value-added services, were really established. The current state is that the infrastructure is very complete and the information transmission speed is very fast, so the commercialization speed of AI is far beyond the past. This is also the beginning of the year here https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2023982690144579970? S=20 It was said that mobile Internet took less than 10 years to complete the journey of Internet, which took 20 years to complete, and AI may only need a shorter time to complete the journey of mobile Internet. Also here before, https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2052316328246247804? S=20 said the most important industry observation framework of the past year: the era of rapid penetration and popularization of new technologies. In March 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States. In the second and third quarters of 2007, more than 30 real estate mortgage lending institutions in the United States went bankrupt. In September 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis spread (many financial institutions in Europe and America were hit by thunderstorms), which escalated from a subprime mortgage crisis to a global financial crisis. From October 2007 to early 2009, the US stock market experienced a real plunge, and the Nasdaq plummeted. Why is it so tragic? On the one hand, real estate, as an underlying asset, has gone bad, leading to a negative spiral of deleveraging and a chain of stampede; On the other hand, it was not until October 2008 that the US Congress passed the bailout bill (which was actually very late in terms of timing, how late would it be? The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and the collapse of American International Group were the last two global financial institutions to go bankrupt during the financial crisis), authorizing the Federal Reserve to implement quantitative easing in finance. Many people are not aware that quantitative easing became a permanent tool of the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis. Prior to this, the main means of regulation by the Federal Reserve was interest rates. From a personal perspective, the foam of Scinet shares in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008 have their own characteristics: 1) After the Internet foam burst, the business model was really found, and the penetration of new technologies such as Internet, mobile Internet and AI became faster and faster, and the commercialization became faster and faster; 2) After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve invented many tools (quantitative easing, BTFP, RMP, etc.), and the Ministry of Finance actively intervened in the financial market. The "invisible hand" has become the "visible hand". Significantly improved ability to intervene in the market Last year, we also talked about several major adjustments in the US stock market since 2000, one of which was caused by a fundamental rupture, and the other five were caused by the impact of macroeconomic crises. So if you haven't seen a major macro crisis or major problems with the fundamentals of the industry, then it's hard to talk about a major peak. It's not that the market doesn't adjust, the volatility will actually increase. Last year's tweet also talked about: the amplification of volatility comes from: 1) The rise of AI leads to the collapse of the middle class, and there is a stronger tendency to gamble in order to make a leap; 2) The more productivity develops, the less people need to do anything and can devote a lot of time to trading. The trend of retail investors is becoming increasingly prominent; 3) In the era of anti globalization, the dominance of strongmen and geopolitical shocks will also amplify fluctuations. Simply put, the probability of a major decline at the level of 2000 or 2008 is not high (due to both industry fundamentals and macroeconomic regulation measures). However, such as this year's Iran war, deleveraging in July, tariff war last year, the ebb of yen carry trade in 24 years, the surge of treasury bond at the end of the third quarter of 23 years, the thunder of Silicon Valley banks at the beginning of the year, and the crazy interest rate hike in the inflation report of 22 years, these adjustments caused by macro problems may be experienced every year, but for different reasons, transmission mechanisms and manifestations. For us, it's about walking and watching. At the beginning of the year 25, here is https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/189527083215614924? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A also reviewed the adjustment patterns of the US stock market over the past 20 years.