𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Oct 10, 2026 18:41
There is a big difference between "the path we are on will lead to problems", which basically everyone agrees with, and "all those problems are here right now and it's crisis time".
It's my view that too many people are in the latter camp. Expanding buybacks and maybe canceling 20Y sales are not crisis responses. 20Ys were always kind of an awkward middle child anyway. These actions speak to a direction of travel and IMO folks are extrapolating and pulling forward what they envision into the present. Meanwhile Fed lending facility usage is low, indicating low financial system stress. The narrative is way out ahead of the observable facts at this moment, for me. Happy to hear what anyone thinks is wrong with what I've said
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