深潮TechFlow
深潮TechFlow|Oct 10, 2026 03:26
[Bernstein: SpaceX Buys Spectrum, Low-Band Cuts 30% of Site Demand, Benefiting Tower Companies] Deep Tide TechFlow reports, according to Trend Research, Bernstein's October 8, 2026, research report indicates that SpaceX has reached a final agreement with Grain Management to acquire its 800MHz spectrum portfolio. Low-band spectrum can reduce the demand for macro sites in ground networks by approximately 30%. The greenfield construction cost, including spectrum, is estimated at $50 billion to $130 billion, and excluding spectrum, it is approximately $15 billion to $80 billion, corresponding to about 30,000 to 120,000 macro sites. Bernstein maintains an "Outperform" rating for American Tower and Crown Castle International, a "Market Perform" rating for SBA Communications, and an "Outperform" rating for SpaceX, with target prices of $214, $96, $219, and $248, respectively. Bernstein believes this transaction makes SpaceX's ground network deployment options more credible, weakens the narrative of towers becoming obsolete in the era of direct-to-device connectivity, and provides a catalyst for tower valuations. The construction bottleneck lies in deployment capacity, as only 1,200 to 2,000 new towers are built annually in the U.S., with the model assuming reliance on existing structures. Bernstein leans toward the view that SpaceX's mobile business will ultimately pursue a collaborative route.
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