This is quite a bizarre move: 1. Due to the Middle East war, many refineries have been destroyed, shut down, or severely damaged. Trump has no choice but to turn to Iran's ally, Big Goose, to buy diesel. 2. On the other hand, the U.S. is still aiding Ukraine, but now it has to buy diesel from Ukraine's opponent, essentially sending them money. 3. One major reason for this year's diesel shortage is Ukraine's repeated drone strikes on Big Goose's refineries. Several refineries have been shut down or severely damaged. Last year, Russia exported 2.5 million tons of diesel per month. This year, in July and August, diesel shipments were only around 500,000 tons. There's even a domestic shortage in Russia, and they've extended the diesel export ban for producers until the end of October (longer for non-producers). Domestic diesel prices in Russia have also surged. Putin's ability to support Trump is quite limited. The first few hundred thousand tons might still be scraped together, but the subsequent 1 million + 3 million tons? With refinery capacity significantly reduced due to damage, it’s clearly a tough ask. Of course, Trump himself said it’s “based on refinery conditions”—he knows this is the key constraint, but for now, he’s painting a big picture for the domestic audience.