October 9 Options Expiry Data

22,000 BTC options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.12, a max pain point of $84,000, and a notional value of $1.84 billion. 123,000 ETH options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.71, a max pain point of $2,650, and a notional value of $320 million. Tomorrow’s expiry includes 6% of Bitcoin options open interest and 9% of Ethereum options open interest. Most of this week has been a pullback, so we’ll need to wait for BTC to pick a direction. Historically, the first wave of a bear market tends to trade time for space, with frequent security incidents and rug pulls in between. The bottom usually consolidates for a relatively long period before a new cycle begins. Looking at the main options data, current IV (implied volatility) is at a relatively low level, indicating the market has low expectations for future volatility. Even though there have been two significant rapid surges this year, the IV of major-term options has continued to decline. Buyers in the market are being very cautious and unwilling to pay high premiums to place bets. The Gex structure is quite interesting, with Gex converging around the round numbers of 90K, 95K, and 100K, but there’s surprisingly little accumulation near the strike prices of 80K and 85K. Crypto had a decent rebound over the summer. During this over-one-month-long mini bull run, major coins saw two rapid surges, and market sentiment has significantly improved. This is a good signal, and holding spot positions in several coins seems worthwhile. Currently, monthly out-of-the-money IV is not high, so it’s still worth considering some directional downside protection.