UNICORN⚡️🦄|Oct 07, 2026 01:41
Michael Burry, who shorted the God of War in 2008, spoke up again
The prototype of Big Short, the founder of Scion, wrote off his own fund last year, but now he only does one thing, focusing on the AI foam
Over the past year, there have been 26 AI financing deals worth 573 billion US dollars, all of which have been disclosed and those that have not yet been disclosed are not included
2/Money flows very concentrated, Meta、Oracle、 Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia OpenAI、Anthropic, Eight families
3/The interesting thing is that the same company changes identities in different transactions, with one being the borrower, the other being the customer, and the third being the guarantor
There is a sentence in the report that I have read twice. The premise for every transaction, every backstop, and every guarantee to be valid is that AI spending cannot be slow
5/What if it's too slow? When several boards of directors change their direction, the guarantee will be required to be paid at the same time, and the guarantor will be specifically targeted when they are at their weakest point
6/Ares directly compared it to the telecommunications debt in 2000, when suppliers lent money to customers to buy their own goods
Among the recipients of the offer, there are insurance companies. American insurance companies have invested assets of 9 trillion yuan, and digital infrastructure accounts for 42% of this year's investment grade private placement
8/Meta and BlackRock's $14 billion El Paso project only insured $450 million in fire insurance, 3%, who will take care of the rest
9/H100's three-year residual value has dropped by 51%. Lenders now require manufacturers and cloud providers to provide residual value guarantees. Burry said these manufacturers are forced and no one is willing to take risks
10/cycle is easy to judge, but difficult is timing
Burry originally said that the foam would break in 2028, but this year it will be changed to 2027
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