Hupzy (Spot On Chain)|Oct 04, 2026 20:18
Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz surpassed ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฝ๐ฑ last week โ the first time clearing that level since the Iran War began. A +๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฌ% ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ from the ~4.5M bpd trough in March, now at roughly 80% of pre-war volumes.
Refined fuel shipments (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) remain at only ~50% of pre-war levels as damaged refineries haven't fully restarted.
๐๐๐ฝ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ: Crude supply normalization is ๐ฑ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ through the oil price channel, feeding into lower inflation expectations and dovish rate pressure โ supportive for BTC as a non-yielding risk asset. But the persistent refined-fuel constraint at 50% means the inflationary impulse from fuel is not fully resolved. Watch for refinery restarts to complete the disinflationary picture.
Brent crude and BTC perps are both tradeable on Hyperliquid for direct positioning.
source: KobeissiLetter
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