Since 1930 until now, the S&P 500 in midterm election years has averaged a 5.6% gain in Q4, which is double the 2.9% average for all years in Q4. October and November are the strongest months in midterm election years. History is on the bulls' side. But this time, there's a variable: The Fed just restarted rate hikes, and oil prices are still above $100. Will the pattern repeat, or will it be proven wrong?