比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto|Oct 03, 2026 12:02
Bitcoin long-term holders are back in profit!
There’s a change on-chain this time that I think is worth paying attention to:
Long-term holders who’ve held $BTC for 6 months to 10 years saw their Adjusted LTH MVRV drop below 1.0 at one point.
This means that even the most steadfast long-term holders were, on average, back in an unrealized loss for a while.
But now—
MVRV has climbed back above 1.0.
In other words:
Long-term holders are back in an overall profit state.
What’s more important is that this dip below 1 was very brief and shallow.
It’s not like the deep bear markets of the past, where long-term holders were stuck underwater for an extended period.
Instead, it feels more like:
Short-term pressure → Repricing of holdings → Quick return to profit.
This is one of the key differences I see between this market cycle and past bear markets.
In a true bear market, even the most resilient holders usually endure prolonged pain and eventually capitulate.
But this time:
BTC saw a significant pullback, yet long-term holders weren’t trapped in deep losses for long.
If the LTH MVRV can continue holding above 1.0 and BTC keeps recovering upward,
then this dip below 1 is likely more of a healthy market reset rather than the start of a prolonged bear market.
Long-term holders flipping back to profit from losses.
This isn’t a signal of euphoria.
Instead, it might be a sign that after the market has flushed out leverage, recalibrated costs, and redistributed holdings,
the next trend is ready to begin.
Always back your analysis with your positions.
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