How high can Bitcoin go this cycle? Let’s start with a harsh reality: BTC’s cycle returns are rapidly diminishing. From the bottom of a bear market to the peak of a bull market: 2010–2011: 10,000x 2011–2013: 582x 2015–2017: 130x 2018–2021: 21.9x 2022–2025: 8.2x And this cycle? BTC is starting again from a low of around $57,800. A lot of people see Bitcoin’s past 20x or 100x gains and assume this cycle should be the same. But don’t forget: The larger the asset size, the more capital it takes to double its value. So as Bitcoin matures, I actually think the most interesting question isn’t “Can it still go 100x?” It’s— Will the rate of diminishing returns start to slow down? Let’s say this cycle is just: 2x → $115,600 3x → $173,400 4x → $231,200 Even these numbers would push BTC into a completely different asset class. And with the addition of ETFs, corporate treasuries, and institutional allocations, this cycle’s market structure is becoming increasingly different from earlier ones. So the real question I’m watching this cycle is: Will BTC’s return multiples continue to decline rapidly as before, or will institutionalization break this trend for the first time? If the four-year cycle is gradually losing its relevance, Then using past cycles’ multiples to predict this cycle’s top might be the biggest trap of all. Where will BTC’s ultimate peak be this time? The market will give us the answer. Let your positions reflect your analysis.