Dr. Kong Jianping @ JackKongNano: Making money through investment mainly depends on luck! If you believe the luck in the mouths of big shots, then you are too naive. On the surface, it may seem like luck, but in reality, it's all about top-level human cognition and odds games. Everyone knows that Dr. Kong's investment in Changxin has achieved great results. From today's perspective, the underlying logic is very clear: 1. Reverse transcription In fact, he participated in Jianan Yunzhi and played with the design of hardcore mining ASIC chips. He is too familiar with the ups and downs of the semiconductor industry chain, wafer foundry, and hardware cycles. In 2020, when Changxin suffered the worst losses, most Internet VCs did not dare to touch this bottomless hole of heavy assets, which is prone to tens of billions of capital expenditure. However, he understood the laws of the hardware cycle, and understood that Changxin, with a valuation of less than 20 billion, was at a very low level, which is called reverse cognition. 2. Welding dead lower limit Storage chips are the staple of the entire semiconductor industry and the core backbone of domestic independent controllability. There are almost no other companies in mainland China that can scale up the production of general-purpose DRAM. The Hefei government is known as the strongest patient capital, and with the support of national strategy, Changxin's situation was destined to only succeed and not fail from the beginning. This is equivalent to being tied to the strongest local government and national fortune, tightly locking down the investment threshold. 3. AI Super Cycle In recent years, with the explosion of AI, HBM and general-purpose DRAM have directly entered a super cycle, and the production capacity of the world's three major storage factories is in short supply, causing chip prices to skyrocket. Changxin took advantage of the situation and boarded this super train. After going public, it was able to raise tens of billions of dollars in funds to continue developing technology research and testing bases, directly entering the first tier of global competition. He bought a ticket for a ship on a national strategic main road when everyone was afraid to bet. The lower limit relies on the Hefei government and domestic substitution to provide a bottom line, while the upper limit relies on the outbreak of AI and the super cycle to fill it up. The so-called luck is just a gust of wind blown by the times when he has calculated all the probabilities and odds. People with insufficient cognition cannot grasp the wind even when it blows.