TraderS | 缺德道人|Oct 02, 2026 11:29
Just over an hour left until the big Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is released. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to 23.8%. Honestly, that’s pretty low. Just looking at the probability numbers, I’m a bit worried about a potential rebound after the NFP hits bottom.
But if the probability could be pushed down to the teens, followed by a bullish week and then some other event triggering a rebound, that might be a better trajectory.
Judging from the concentrated speeches by Fed officials today, the consensus within the Fed seems to remain the same as before: there will likely be at least two more rate hikes, but not in October. The next hike is more likely to happen in December.
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