degentrading|Oct 02, 2026 11:25
Pre Market Thoughts - 2 Oct 26
Yields lower across the curve by around 10bps. Meanwhile, a cool NFP could also trigger an enormous short squeeze across the rates complex as short positioning has built up to a large amount there. At high yields, there is also alot of real money demand for paper.
Memory was the tell yesterday in its price action. Shortly after retesting the lows post earnings, MU v- reversed and turned green into the close, likewise with SNDK. This has pushed up the entire memory complex and has dragged SOXX higher. In my previous note, i talked about how the indexes like QQQ are hugging the highs alongside SPX to a lesser extent. This like what i have been banging the drum for the last 2 weeks, is one of the most contested breakouts to the upside ever.
The positioning map looks very clean with record low gross and net leverage numbers across funds according to Prime data. Vols are also at ATH lows with a lack of speculative demand.
Neoclouds are also poised for the next move.
Overall, the theme for this week has been about waiting. I dont think this will significantly change and i would wait for the repricing. All the fundamental data that you could want is already out, now it is a matter of price catching up. After all, price creates its own narrative.
Crypto wise, alongside the fall in yields - we had a move up in risk with the majors rallying. However, alts still look sluggish and i dont see any compelling trades at the moment. One thing i am deeply interested in is the release of Paper Trade on 10 Oct, Gambit Terminal will be releasing an analytics suite on this to help farmers maximize their paper printing. Pun intended.
Good luck!
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink