Just said it last night, Q4 isn’t about watching 'whether three consecutive green candles can keep rising,' but rather whether BTC can break through $85.5K–$88K and turn the rebound into a reversal. Today, BTC surged to a high of $86.8K. The first resistance at $85.5K has been cleared, but there’s still one last step to overcome the key resistance at $87.4K and $88K. OKX The logic behind this rally isn’t complicated: The U.S. core PCE came in lower than expected, and the probability of the Fed raising rates again in October dropped below 25%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated from around 5.34%, U.S. stocks ended their three-day losing streak, and risk appetite improved. After BTC broke through $85.5K, it triggered short sellers’ stop-losses, leading to a rapid surge. So, the prediction from last night that 'October will first test resistance to the upside' has come true, but it’s still too early to call it a reversal. The reason is that over the past two days, BTC spot ETFs saw a combined net outflow of over $200M, indicating that this green candle was mainly driven by macro expectations improving and short covering. It wasn’t fueled by sustained institutional buying. Without support from ETF spot buying, the area around $88K is still prone to a pullback after a spike. From here, there are only two scenarios to watch: 1. If BTC breaks through $88K with strong volume and holds $85.5K during the retest, there’s a chance for a short-term push toward $90K–$93K, and the Q4 trend could shift from a rebound to a breakout phase. 2. If BTC repeatedly struggles at $87.4K–$88K and falls back below $85.5K, it would suggest this rally is just a sentiment-driven sprint toward resistance, likely followed by a pullback to $82K–$84K for consolidation. The big picture from last night remains correct, but the market has only cleared the first hurdle. True strength isn’t about how high it spikes intraday, but whether it can break $88K and stay above it.