Aaron Dishner|Oct 02, 2026 02:18
DXY Breakout Is BAD FOR BITCOIN, and I am not sugarcoating it. The US dollar index closed above TBO resistance Wednesday, printed a TBO breakout on a 0.57% move Thursday, and now sits above long-term overhead resistance at its highest level since April 2025, with daily RSI at a higher high of 87.62 and weekly RSI overbought. I treat DXY like combined stablecoin dominance, so a pumping dollar means pressure on stocks that could cause crypto to dump. Crypto looks fine for now and I am still very bullish, but have a plan either way, because any major dip is a gift.
Bitcoin closed up 1.5% Thursday but again finished just below TBO resistance. All four TBO Cloud lines still point up and on-balance volume keeps rising, so there is nothing to complain about yet. Ethereum closed up 0.76% with TBO resistance at 2789 and has not tagged the fast line since the 18th. Bitcoin dominance rose 0.38%, so money rotated away from alts, and OTHERS.D took the biggest hit with a TBT bearish divergence. With the slow line pointing up I give that signal less weight, so a retrace to 8.37% is a buy-the-dip opportunity, and TOTAL3ESBTC at its fast line is the DCA spot for alts.
USDJPY printed a second TBO breakdown with RSI at 7.52 and EURUSD is oversold on the weekly, which is what a strong dollar does to other currencies. The Dow wicked below the cloud while NVDA sits at TBO resistance at 231.5. Gold, silver, and copper still look weak. Monad printed a TBO breakout above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, but after a 28% push it looks like an exhaustion breakout. ETHFI printed a TBT bearish divergence cluster, and a closed long soon would be a much worse sign. CleanSpark is below a squeezed cloud, so I expect a pullback toward support just over 9.
CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Stalls Below TBO Resistance
02:33 Stablecoin Dominance Holds Historical Support
07:56 OTHERS/BTC Divergence Signals Pullback Risk
11:22 DXY Breakout Clears Overhead Resistance
13:40 Pumping Dollar Raises Crypto Dump Risk
16:10 Dow Weakens While Stocks Hold Up
18:12 TradFi Weakness Raises Crypto Risk
24:06 Monad Breakout Shows Exhaustion Risk
27:53 Polkadot And ETHFI Signal Pullback Risk
30:25 Sui Ecosystem Resistance Defines Confirmation
34:07 Fortinet And CrowdStrike Stay Bullish
36:48 Micron Tests Resistance Before Fib Target
48:12 Canton Consolidation Signals Market Transition
52:55 Useless Divergence Signals Pullback Risk
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