Three dimensional integrated trading system | BTC market morning shift speed evaluation ----The price fluctuates up and down, accumulating momentum, and the complex market may exceed expectations The current price of Bitcoin is around 84800, but it has rebounded from 83800. After PCE surged and fell, the price did not continue to plummet, but instead climbed back to the upper edge of the range. What a frustrating market! For those who engage in contract trading, if it is not short-term trading, they may have to repeatedly hit stop losses. It is better to reduce operations in a volatile market. Let's first take a look at the analysis of three-dimensional integration: Long and short positions: The rebound strength is still insufficient, and the long positions are not strong enough. From 83800 to 84800, the four hour level bullish energy is still weak, and there has been no secondary bullish energy. The open interest contracts of derivatives are still at a low level, and this rebound is not driven by new leveraged funds, but more like a natural repair after short covering. The funding rate is still around negative, and the willingness of short sellers to pay is weakening, but it has not turned positive either. ⚙️ On chain data: ETF flow changes day by day, unpredictable and unpredictable Last night we saw ETF outflows, but today's latest data shows a net inflow of $675 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs on October 2nd, with BlackRock IBIT alone receiving $413 million. One outflow and one inflow day by day, without forming a sustained unilateral direction. The reduction of 30000 shares by Whale occurred from September 27th to October 1st. There is no new selling data for Whale today, but there is no signal of Whale increasing its holdings again. Structural form: The price has rebounded to the upper edge of the range. The range of 82500-85000 is still there, and the price has returned from the lower edge to near the upper edge. The shape of the converging triangle has not been destroyed, the variable disk still exists, and the direction has not been selected yet. There is a historical data that needs to be known about tonight's non farm payroll. CoinDesk has calculated 79 non farm data release days over the past 6 years, and the average daily volatility of Bitcoin is only 2.1%, which is basically consistent with normal volatility outside of non farm days. Out of 79 times, 39 times saw an increase and 40 times saw a decrease, with the direction almost evenly split. The actual predictive value of non-agricultural data for BTC direction is far from what the market imagines. But this time there is a special background: PCE says inflation is cooling down, ADP says employment is strong, and the two data are fighting. No matter what the non farm payroll figures are, there may be serious market divergence, and the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate sharply, with ups and downs. For contract trading, watching and observing should be the best strategy. Xiaolong's core judgment: At the current price of 84800, the rebound is not strong enough, but it has not continued to decline. The actual impact of non farm payroll on BTC direction tonight may be limited, don't expect one data to determine the medium to short term direction. If the non farm payroll is stronger than expected, 82500 may be tested. If the data is mild or weak, 84800-85000 is the upper edge of the rebound. Before 82500 is effectively breached, there is no rush to draw a breakout conclusion. Wait for the non farm payroll to land before analyzing the price trend of Bitcoin. Remember to follow me. At present, the price of Bitcoin has not broken through four times at 82500, and with ETFs experiencing significant inflows today, the difficulty of directly falling below it in the short term is increasing. The resilience of bulls exceeds my imagination. The more likely scenario for the future BTC price trend is that the price will fluctuate sharply in the range of 82500-85000 after the non farm payroll, and then continue to grind until it becomes crazy and desperate, and then the direction will come out. Patience is also an important part of trading! Wait, don't worry!