President Trump says, "prices are way down from what Biden and the Dumocrats left us... and now prices are coming down, RAPIDLY." Look at what was forecast in February, when analysts said a closed Hormuz meant $200 crude and a global recession. It's October, crude is around $100 and headline inflation is 3.4% and falling. That outcome required the US Navy keeping the strait open, 40 million barrels released from American reserves, and sustained pressure on allies to release theirs. Core PCE at 3.0%, under forecast, is the number the Fed actually watches, which means the underlying trend is cooling even with an oil shock still running.