Trajectory of the Empty Set: Φ(t)=HouseWeight/BidCapacity+IranOption HouseWeight↑=(MaturityWall↑+NewDebt↑)×RefiRate↑+YieldVelocity↑×DebtStock BidCapacity↓=FedRoom↓×(TGA↓+Growth?+ForeignBid↓+DealerBalance↓) IranOption↑=EnergyShock↑+SOHPremium↑+TsyDuration↑ Bessent: {Iran cargoes at sea}→∅ in 14d Market: {Hormuz option+CPI+duration}≠∅ Φ(t0)<Φ(Nov)<Φ(2027)