Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|Sep 30, 2026 13:11
Oil prices in August are already so high, yet PCE still managed to drop. And today just happens to coincide with the BEA's annual data revision, updating historical data along with some PCE calculation methods. The market was worried about inflation not coming down, but the previous values were directly recalculated under the new framework. All I can say is, when inflation is too high, what do you do? Don’t panic—just open Excel and update the formulas. Trump is still something else. Can’t bring inflation down? Then just tweak the PCE calculation method. Either way, crypto and the stock market are rallying first—let’s call it bullish news. October rate hike expectations are easing, and the 10-year Treasury yield shows a triple-top divergence on the 4-hour chart, also looking bearish. At least we’re bullish until mid-October. Holding onto those semiconductors we scooped up after the September Fed meeting is looking good.
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