Murphy
Murphy|9月 30, 2026 04:32
More than 90% of short-term chips have achieved profitability, and it has been over 40 days so far. Isn't it incredible that there are still so many negative expectations on a macro level, but prices remain firm? That's right, if the market is still in a bear market sentiment, STH-PSIP cannot reach 90%, let alone maintain it for such a long time. So, we can see intuitively from the graph that there is a blank area (circled by the dashed line) in the middle of every two dense clusters (shaded in red), which precisely reflects the periodicity of BTC. In other words, when STH-PSIP goes through a long period of trough and returns to its peak, it is time to say goodbye to the 'bear market'. Afterwards, we need to quickly switch from 'bear market thinking' to 'bull market thinking'. What is bear market thinking? Every rebound requires consideration of how to sell; So the bull market mentality is to only consider how to buy every time there is a pullback. If you still have the idea of "returning to the bear market and setting a new low" now, in my opinion, it is being imprisoned by your own obsession and drawing a trap. Today is different from the past, and the underlying logic that determines the market has changed. -------------------------------- A small reminder: Among my fan base, there are some who only hold trend long positions, while others are waiting for short-term opportunities. So, I update every day to meet various different needs as much as possible. You need to distinguish the different "time levels" targeted by the data yourself. Which ones are cyclical and which ones provide short-term judgment basis. Sometimes, the data may appear contradictory, such as a bullish trend but a bearish trend in the short term, which is perfectly normal. Of course, the error rate of short-term judgment is quite high, as there are too many factors that affect short-term fluctuations. The data we see only represents the behavior and emotional expression of investors at this moment. But to truly reflect on the trend, it may take several weeks or even months.
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