链研社|AI First🔶💧
链研社|AI First🔶💧|Sep 28, 2026 11:54
SemiAnalysis released a report last week titled 'China's AI Infrastructure Boom', which for the first time clarified the computing power of major Chinese companies. They interviewed over 60 companies, tracked over 1000 data centers, and concluded that China has delivered 24 GW of capacity, second only to the United States at 56 GW, with approximately 20 GW under construction and 30 GW expected to be built. Byte 5.3 GW ranks first, accounting for about one-fifth of the country's delivered capacity, but the vast majority is leased, while Huawei's 1 GW is almost entirely self built. Alibaba has 3.9 GW, Tencent has 2.4 GW, and Baidu has 1.1 GW. ByteDance is a major computing power player, always adhering to a closed source model, with the strongest cash flow, much higher than the combined revenue of Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu. However, due to the aggressive investment in AI, its cash flow has almost dried up. Doubao has a monthly activity of 345 million, ranking first in China. The video model Seedance has the highest market share and is still training a 10T parameter model. Currently, the highest parameter in China is 2.8T on the dark side of the moon. Alibaba's qwen5 target is 10 trillion parameters, DeepSeek's next generation is 8 trillion parameters, and Minimax will release a 3 trillion parameter Minimax M3 Pro in October. By 2026, AI capital expenditure will increase from 160 billion at the beginning of the year to 200 billion, with half of it going towards chip purchases. If the model is leading and the computing power is sufficient, you won't open source it, OpenAI、Anthropic、 ByteDance has chosen the same path, maximizing profits in the industry chain through leasing, self built computing power, and research and development of chips. As representatives of open source, Zhipu and DeepSeek use GLM and DeepSeek, with 90% of their usage being deployed by others and only receiving 10% of their own money. The root cause is that their computing power is not enough. Even if they optimize their computing power, the money they can earn will not exceed 5 billion US dollars. Zhipu's current ARR is 1.8 billion US dollars, DeepSeek and Moonlit Kimi's monthly ARR is 1 billion US dollars, and MiniMax's monthly ARR is 800 million US dollars. Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu will have a total capital expenditure of approximately $20 billion in Q2 2026, doubling year-on-year, marking the first time in history that they have simultaneously experienced negative free cash flow. Anxiety about the peak of consumer Internet is being replaced by computer rooms and GPUs.
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