金色财经|Sep 28, 2026 09:48
[Elon Musk Supports 2027 AGI Prediction, but Prediction Markets Assign Low Probability]
According to a report by Jinse Finance on September 28, citing BeInCrypto, Elon Musk reposted a post by X user Dr. Singularity and commented 'accurate.' The post predicted that major U.S. labs would achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by 2027, stating that Claude Opus 5.5 is nearing AGI and that Google and OpenAI will follow suit. The post garnered approximately 1.8 million views. However, prediction markets remain skeptical: Kalshi estimates a 44.3% probability that OpenAI will announce AGI before 2028, while Polymarket assigns only an 18% probability and Kalshi 14.8% for 2027. During the same period, GPT-6 Astra was released, NVIDIA's Jensen Huang claimed AGI has arrived, but Yann LeCun questioned whether autoregressive LLMs can achieve human-level intelligence.
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