看不懂的SOL|Sep 28, 2026 06:05
National Day can be a holiday, but the market will not: this week's focus will be on employment, Micron, and consumption
Brothers, this week marks the end of the third quarter and coincides with the National Day holiday. There are many events, but there is no need to focus on every one. I will focus on three lines: whether employment will change interest rate expectations, whether AI demand can deliver profits, and whether consumers are willing to spend money.
The following times are all in Beijing time.
Article 1: Employment data, with a focus on Friday.
On September 29th at 22:00, we will first look at the August JOLTS job vacancies in the United States, and then on October 2nd at 20:30, we will look at the September non farm payroll report. US Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule, non farm payroll release time
JOLTS looks at how many more people the company wants to hire, non farm based on actual new employment, while also considering the unemployment rate, wage growth rate, and previous adjustments. We cannot simply judge that the stock market is going to rise based on the unexpected increase in new numbers.
Strong employment may indicate resilience in demand, or it may make the market worry that high interest rates will last longer; Weak employment may ease expectations of interest rate hikes, but if it weakens too quickly, it could also raise concerns about profitability. The key is data combination, not isolated numbers.
The second point is Micron's financial report, looking at how AI investment turns into revenue.
Micron will release its financial report on September 30th in the East Coast of the United States, and the conference call will correspond to 4:30 am Beijing time on October 1st. Micron Announcement
I am more concerned about HBM demand, DRAM and NAND prices, gross profit margin, and next quarter guidance. Order growth is certainly important, but the cost of expanding production and the amount of cash flow that can be retained cannot be ignored. Good performance should also be compared with the expectations already given by the market.
Article 3: Consumer financial reports to check whether residents are under pressure to spend.
Nike's financial report will be released at 4:15 am on October 2nd, and the call will be at 5:00 am. Focus on Greater China region, inventory, discount intensity, and gross profit margin. Nike Announcement
Sales growth does not necessarily mean business improvement: if more promotions are used to generate revenue, profits may not necessarily increase synchronously.
For regular investors, this calendar is meant to help understand fluctuations, not to remind oneself to bet on direction before every event.
If you have travel arrangements during the holidays, leave enough room for funds and control your position in advance. Don't let a financial report or non farm payroll turn your original long-term plan into a temporary gamble.
The most noteworthy thing to observe this week is whether the answers provided by the economy and enterprises can support the market's original expectations.
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