The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Sep 28, 2026 02:37
US Treasuries are lagging equities by a historic margin: S&P 500 futures have outperformed 10Y Treasury note futures by +23.3 percentage points over the last 6 months, the largest outperformance since 2021. This also marks the 6th-largest underperformance of 10Y Note futures this century. This comes as S&P 500 futures have risen +17.6% over this period, trading near their all-time high. At the same time, 10Y Note futures have declined -5.7%, to their lowest level since June 2007. To put this into perspective, 10Y Note futures outperformed S&P 500 futures by as much as +40.3 percentage points during the 6-month period in the 2008 Financial Crisis. Stocks and Treasuries are diverging at a historic pace.
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