Greta008
Greta008|Sep 26, 2026 06:00
Var I played a bit in the early stages and then stopped, so I basically didn’t get any points. But I don’t want to miss this opportunity. Right now, there are only two ways to get in: buying points OTC or betting on FDV in the prediction market. OTC prices recently are around 20–30U/point. In August–September, large transactions were mostly between 20–26U. On September 10th and 13th, two deals worth around 100K U each were closed at 20U. After the tokenomics were released on September 23rd, the market moved up to 24–32U. These past few days, some people are selling at 25U, while others are calculating at 30U. The other option is Polymarket. TGE only mentioned Q4, no specific date. Assuming a fixed weekly release of 150K points: By the end of Q3, approximately 9.15M points. Earliest in Q4 (early October): 9.15–9.3M points. Latest in Q4 (end of December): around 11.1M points. Using the current OTC price of 25–30U to back-calculate, the airdrop pool is roughly 230M–330M U. If 32% is fully unlocked, the corresponding FDV is only about 700M–1B. The market’s median estimate is 1.5B, with about a one-third chance of exceeding 2B. So I didn’t chase the 25–30U points; instead, I directly bought a large amount of FDV below 2B. The sell pressure on the first day should be significant, but what happens after that is hard to say.
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