The Kobeissi Letter|Sep 25, 2026 22:45
Global oil markets are facing a historic loss of diesel supply:
Diesel supply from the Middle East dropped by -835,000 barrels per day on average between March and August 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to Vortexa estimates.
At the same time, Russian diesel supply fell -377,000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, Kpler estimates diesel supply was down -750,000 barrels per day in the Middle East over the same period and -361,000 barrels per day in Russia, while Energy Aspects estimates declines of -733,000 and -307,000 barrels per day, respectively.
This puts the average estimated diesel supply loss at -772,667 barrels per day in the Middle East and -348,333 barrels per day in Russia, or -1.1 million combined.
Furthermore, Russian diesel supply plunged -615,000 barrels per day YoY on average in July and August, following Russia's diesel-export ban.
The global diesel market crisis is deepening.
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