Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|Sep 25, 2026 17:11
10Y hit a high of 5.23%, very close to the pivot high from 2008. A pullback here is totally normal. As long as the bond market pulls back slightly, say to around 5%, the stock market could easily hit new highs. Looking at the VIX, there’s still room to drop. Connecting the lows from July, August, and September, the bottom could go as low as 13. As for oil, it bounced back to the midline of the upward channel at 97 and then pulled back. Before the midterm elections, there’s a chance it could touch the 200 EMA at 82. On the sentiment side, even with the move from 7500 to 7750, the Fear & Greed Index is still at 38 (fear)—crazy. AAII shows 48% of people are still fearful, and only 32% are bullish. Still bullish here, going long on semi.
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