The Kobeissi Letter|Sep 25, 2026 13:52
The last time US Treasury yields were this high, total US national debt stood at just $8.9 trillion.
Today, US debt stands at $40.1 trillion. That's +$31.2 trillion more, or over 4.5 TIMES higher.
This means every 1 percentage point in the average cost of servicing the debt now translates to ~$401 billion per year in interest expense.
In 2007, the same 1 percentage point translated to just ~$89 billion.
That’s an additional ~$312 BILLION in annual interest expense for every percentage point increase in borrowing cost.
This is a vastly different situation than it was 19 years ago.
The bond market matters more now than ever.
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