Sometimes, the crypto world has these special events where everyone knows way in advance when they’ll happen, but when the day finally arrives, the market still keeps a close watch. Token Unlock is one of those events. On September 25, XPL will undergo a major unlock worth approximately $153 million, which is equivalent to 63.2% of the currently unlocked supply. And this time, it’s a bit unique: allocations for Private Investors, Founder/Team, etc., will enter the transferable phase. With such a large supply coming out, hasn’t the market already known about this for a while? Yes, but knowing and fully digesting are two different things. Token Unlocks aren’t like black swan events. The problem with black swans is that no one knows when they’ll happen; Unlocks, on the other hand, even set the alarm clock for you in advance. But what the market truly doesn’t know is: will the people receiving the tokens sell them? How many are planning to hedge early? How much capital has already exited ahead of time? Will the unlocked tokens immediately hit the market, or will they be held onto? Can the market depth absorb this supply? So, the same "$100 million unlock" can lead to completely different outcomes depending on the project, liquidity environment, and holder structure. And this XPL unlock isn’t a one-time event. The remaining team and investor allocations will continue to be released monthly until September 2028. The price being traded isn’t just about “supply increase”; it’s about everyone’s expectations of what will happen after the supply increases. Everyone knows what time the alarm clock will go off—some wake up an hour early, some put on earplugs and keep sleeping, and others sit by the bed waiting for it to ring. The real question is: after the alarm goes off, what will the people in the room do?