Today's market Yesterday, there was a net inflow of over 300 million yuan from ETFs, which continued to decline .. It's hard to imagine where BTC would have fallen back if there hadn't been this 1 billion buy in yesterday and the day before yesterday .. ETFs should start hesitating today At present, the pre market premium fluctuates positively and negatively (Figure 1) The spot CVD of Coinbase in the Asian market has also started to decline synchronously . There shouldn't be that strong buying today Please confirm after the opening The overall risk off is still ongoing today Even the 5-year interest rate briefly touched 5% So the overall judgment for BTC should continue to rebound and slowly decline . In addition, there will be quarterly options expiring tomorrow, with a nominal amount of 15 billion. ------------ From the pending orders, it seems that there was a small absorption of volume at 83k just now. For now, this can only be viewed as a rebound of scalp peeling. To continue to rise, bulls need to be able to hold onto yesterday's low point and POC (as shown in Figure 2-3) 84k will be the position contested by long and short positions today (and also the place where intraday short positions can be observed today) ------------ So we can only look at the macro level next Do you have any good news from China and the United States If the macro situation continues to remain unchanged and the interest rates remain high for 5 to 10 years . The continued risk off of risky assets is likely to return to the previous large range, as shown in Figure 4 At present, it cannot be treated as a bull market retracement . To change the current situation, we can only wait for macro news ..