Chen Guilin's Trading Notes: September 23, 2026 --- **1. Some rambling** Turns out traders can’t sleep well during bear markets, and they can’t sleep well during bull markets either. So basically, traders aren’t meant to sleep. --- **2. Market insights** Saw the argument from @KristinAbr8059 in quote #140 and totally agree. Personally, I’ve divided this overall crypto market trend into two phases based on Bitcoin’s candlestick movement: **Viewpoint (Image 1):** First, my prediction—whether this rally is a major rebound within a bear market or the transition from bear to bull, $100K will be the ultimate resistance for Bitcoin in this first wave of the rally. The chances of breaking through and holding above it are almost zero. It’s not just a psychological barrier; the $100K+ zone is where Bitcoin formed its peak during the last bull market. Historically, major tops always require several attempts to break through. **Candlestick analysis:** I see Bitcoin’s rise from $57K to $82K as the first phase of this rally, the pullback from $82K to $75K as the second phase, and the current rise from $75K as the third phase. This third phase has been ongoing for a week now. The rhythm of the crypto market never changes: Bitcoin and Ethereum lead the way, followed by altcoin rotations. --- **3. Bull market** Bull market vibes. There’s so much information it’s overwhelming, and the surge across multiple coins is dizzying. But if you don’t get the rhythm right, it’s easy to mess up the flow, lose money, and ruin your mindset. Right now, it’s all about competing in three areas: - **Vision:** The ability to pick the right altcoins (the person quoted above is the only true master of altcoins I know). - **Discipline:** The ability to see opportunities and choose not to act on them. - **Execution:** The ability to stick to your system no matter the profit or loss, without disrupting your future strategy. --- **4. Strategy** I’ve been rambling about this in the community for days: the purpose of predictions isn’t to predict the future—after all, the market can only be followed, not controlled. But predictions based on reasonable judgment can help you decide whether to adopt a conservative or aggressive strategy. Here’s my take: - Go aggressive with leverage in the early stages. - Play it safe in the later stages. - Smoothly transition in between. --- **5. Assessment** Right now, we’re in the second half of the overall market trend, specifically the first week of the second half. Making money is still as easy as drinking water (simple market conditions) (Image 2). --- **6. Speculation** Wondering if the crypto market and certain stocks or sectors in the U.S. stock market will pull off a perfect handoff. ---