深潮TechFlow|Sep 22, 2026 03:54
[UBS: Silicon Wafer Supply Tightening, 40% Price Increase Needed to Incentivize Expansion]
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, citing research from Tide Research, UBS stated in a report dated September 18, 2026, that the utilization rate of 12-inch wafers will rise from 84% in 2026 to 99% in 2028, reaching 103.7% in 2029. Demand for 12-inch wafers is expected to grow by 11% in 2026, and by 14% and 13% in 2027 and 2028, respectively.
UBS believes that silicon wafer manufacturers may need to increase prices by 40% to 50% or more to consider capacity expansion; otherwise, a severe shortage could occur after 2028. The firm has issued a "Buy" rating for Shin-Etsu Chemical, GlobalWafers, and Siltronic, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating for SUMCO.
UBS notes that after experiencing a downturn cycle from 2023 to 2025, silicon wafer manufacturers remain cautious about expanding capacity, and price increases are a necessary condition for expansion. The firm recommends closely monitoring silicon wafer price trends and manufacturers' expansion plans as key signals for identifying supply-demand turning points.
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