小龙先生|Sep 21, 2026 22:41
☀️《Bitcoin Market Morning Brief》
——BTC shows volume-price divergence on the 4-hour chart, short-term pullback is a buying opportunity ⚡️
BTC current price is around 86,600. After breaking through 84K, it continued to climb, but signs of volume-price divergence have appeared on the 4-hour timeframe.
Volume-price divergence signals:
Price hit a new high, but the 4-hour bullish volume didn’t expand in sync. Instead, it shows volume-price divergence. This indicates insufficient short-term buying momentum, with upward strength weakening at the margin. A pullback on the 4-hour timeframe may be needed to digest profit-taking.
But this is a buying opportunity, not a signal to exit.
The reason is simple: 84K has already broken out with volume, confirming the bull market is fully underway. The major cycle Fib 0.618 level has been taken out, and the structural nature has shifted. A pullback is a normal retest after a breakout, not a trend reversal.
Structural pattern: Current price is at a short-term resistance level.
86,900 is the mid-cycle Fib 3.0 level, and the current price of 86,638 is right near this resistance. Upper resistance levels are around 90K and 93K; lower support levels are at 85,300 (breakout platform) and 83,500 (bull market confirmation line).
Short-term price movement scenarios:
1. Pullback to 85,300-86,000 before moving higher, probability 40%.
2. Direct continuation to 89,189-92,895, probability 35%.
3. Spike followed by a drop to 83,339, probability 25%.
Mid-term target prices:
Around 90K → 92,895 → 98,889 → Around 100K (first bull market target).
Core summary from Little Dragon:
The main bull market rally has started, and the direction was confirmed after breaking through 83,500. However, short-term 4-hour volume is decreasing, and the current price is at the 86,900 resistance level—don’t chase at this position.
A price pullback to 85,300-86K is a buying opportunity. If it pulls back further to 84K, that’s a strong signal to add positions aggressively.
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