Murphy|Sep 21, 2026 04:44
If we're going to 'carve a boat,' it’s actually pretty interesting. In the evolution of chip structures, this cycle is almost identical to the last one.
Both cycles bottomed out when PSIP (Percentage of Supply in Profit) dropped below 50%; both cycles ended the bear market with a sharp rally; and after the rally, bearish news caused the first PSIP pullback, which coincidentally hit 65% both times.
I mentioned in my tweet series '2026 Bear-to-Bull Transition Series 1':
If the market starts entering the bear-to-bull transition phase, PSIP is unlikely to drop below 50% again. From then on, every time PSIP dips below 65% (green zone), it’s an excellent right-side opportunity.
Of course, based on the experience of the last cycle, if PSIP has a chance to drop below 60%, that would naturally be even better.
Will this cycle have such an opportunity? I think it will.
This is the subjective opinion of 'carving a boat,' backed by long-term data tracking. After all, bull markets are never smooth sailing.
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