星球日报|Sep 21, 2026 02:54
**[Lighter Prediction Market Mechanism Suspected to Be Revealed: Proposed HIP-3 Style Whitelist Operation Model]**
Odaily Planet Daily News: The decentralized order book exchange platform Lighter recently saw a code repository submission titled "Binary options support," indicating that its ZK Circuits may have started supporting binary outcome markets (prediction markets). According to the code, each market has a settlement cap (typically 100 for prediction markets), with share prices traded between 0 and the cap. The market is ultimately settled at either 0 or the cap based on the outcome. This mechanism uses full USDC collateral and does not support leveraged trading, thereby eliminating risks of liquidation or margin calls.
Additionally, there are two noteworthy design features in Lighter's implementation:
1. **Circuits Supporting Continuous Market Settlement**: Market outcomes can be settled at any value within the range of 0 to the cap. This means that, beyond traditional "yes/no" events, contracts based on actual measured data can also be supported. For example, in the future, a non-liquidation prediction market based on IPO valuation ranges could be introduced: users bet on a company's IPO pricing outcome, and final returns are calculated linearly based on where the actual valuation falls within the range, with minimum and maximum returns set at the boundaries.
2. **Market Creation and Settlement Mechanism**: Analysis suggests that Lighter may introduce a "market operator" model, allowing whitelist-approved operators to create, manage, and handle market settlements, similar to the HIP-3 deployment model. This design implies that Lighter's prediction markets may not be entirely created by the platform itself but could expand market categories through authorized operators.
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