比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto|Sep 20, 2026 15:35
Bitcoin long-term holders are finally starting to 'sell at a profit' again.
For most of this year, the BTC long-term holders (LTH) who sold their positions were actually doing so at a loss.
But now, a very important shift is happening:
The LTH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is climbing back above 1.
In simple terms:
Long-term holders are transitioning from 'cutting losses and exiting' to 'taking profits.'
Looking back at previous cycles, this kind of shift is definitely worth paying attention to.
In 2012, 2015, 2019, and around 2023, we saw similar patterns:
Deep in the bear market → Long-term holders realizing heavy losses → Market cleans out weak hands → Indicator flips positive → A new cycle gradually begins.
The most critical part is:
This usually doesn’t happen during the craziest phase of a bull market.
Instead, it’s more like—
The bear market is fading, but the true bull market frenzy hasn’t started yet.
The biggest question for the market right now might no longer be:
'How much longer will the bear market last?'
But rather:
'If the bear market is really over, do you have enough positions?'
The behavior of long-term holders is quietly changing.
And historically, before the big moves become obvious to everyone, the on-chain data often shifts first.
BTC
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